Our lighting industry has experienced more change in the past 20 years than at any time since its inception. This column focuses on 10 key concerns affecting our future. Whether you concur or disagree I would value hearing from you. Please reach out to mlien@ies.org with any comments or questions. Ten Transformational Topics 1. Innovation in architectural lighting is stagnant. Consumers have accepted price and performance levels of LED sources. Lighting research has ceased with few exceptions. Lighting researchers have been laid off, furloughed, and repurposed into other projects. Manufacturers that used to dedicate funding for research have experienced declining profits and ceased or cut back on research. Low-cost-of-production countries have captured much of the LED market, and they work on lowering prices, not improving products.
2. The lighting industry is reactive, not proactive. This is not new. Decades ago, I was present when a brand manager was confronted by an angry corporate president. The issue was that a new design prototype we were evaluating had deviated from the president’s request to “just copy” a competitor’s product. There have been opportunities for the architectural lighting community to lead on sustainability, renewable integration, smart-city control protocols, product declaration labels, and light and health, among others, but we lagged other industries.
3. Converging technologies are advancing our field through fusion into our products and designs. What progress we have seen in the past several years has primarily been from adding features to existing products such as sensors and solar panels or combining features into products like color tuning, selectable intensity and wattage, and AI. New materials like graphene and quantum dots improve LED performance. AI algorithms are now integrated into horticultural lighting programmed with plant disease identification and outdoor lighting for reducing nuisance tripping of motion sensors by identifying objects other than humans and vehicles.
4. Lighting credentials are increasingly important. The NCQLP’s LC Certification has seen record turnout for the exam over the last two years. NALMCO has added additional specific certifications with significant attendance for the training to attain them. Most recently, it added multiple certifications for both germicidal ultraviolet project management and installation and maintenance. Certifications are critical for lighting professionals to differentiate themselves and provide credibility to clients. Peripheral certifications like those from the USGBC and WELL serve to establish proficiency. ALA, ASHRAE, and IALD certifications also can assure customers that we have been trained on their areas of expertise.
5. Most U.S. lighting manufacturers are fighting for their slice of the pie in our maturing market rather than working together through organizations to create more interest and awareness (a bigger pie). This is also not new but has become increasingly conspicuous as lighting companies’ funding for industry organizations has declined along with profit margins as our market matures. Instead of investing in expanded awareness of the capabilities of products and the benefits of quality lighting design by uniting through industry organizations on public campaigns, companies are fighting for an ever-smaller slice of the pie.
6. Our industry is no longer run by lighting professionals. Knowledgeable lighting professionals held the CEO and president positions in most architectural lighting companies with professionals in business administration working for them. That has flipped, with many—if not most—leadership positions now requiring administrative expertise over lighting knowledge. This assumes that lighting knowledge is less critical. While working at one of the largest international lighting companies, colleagues and I would discuss how few knowledgeable lighting people were left as hiring shifted to sales, marketing, and accounting. Because the expertise that is most highly valued is in business management and administration, these positions are easily transferrable, so senior leadership tends not to stay long with less vested interest in their companies. At one company where I worked, we joked about the CEO of the year. With each new leader came a new strategy that canceled previous strategies before they bore fruit.
7. Women and minorities in lighting are not fairly represented in senior leadership positions. Look at the leadership of most lighting companies and you will find a disproportionate mix of gender and ethnic backgrounds. For example, ChatGPT 5 shows only one woman CEO/president in the top 30 lighting and controls companies in the North American market. Having witnessed gender and racial discrimination in our industry as well as better-qualified people denied advancement, it weakens companies and our industry. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in 2023, women working full-time made 83.6% of what men earned. Fewer women in senior management roles is part of what supports this inequity.
8. AI is making it easier for people who do not have a fundamental understanding of lighting to produce lighting designs. This results in poor quality and working conditions in these spaces. I presented a lighting design to a client who shared that another proposal used significantly fewer fixtures, resulting in lower cost and improved return on investment. When I reviewed that proposal, I saw that the uniformity and intensity were below recommended levels, and there was no allowance for dirt or source depreciation. They had learned the software but not the fundamentals of lighting. Results improve with experience—both with the software and, more importantly, having the experience to grasp the consequences, design, and installation implications as well as understanding industry recommendations.
9. AI requires human oversight and, over time, the lighting professionals proficient enough to correct errors will retire. There is no mechanism in place to train people capable of providing AI oversight. This concern is not just with our industry. AI without human oversight can be embarrassingly wrong. Even with AI producing lighting layouts with 80% or better accuracy (with good prompts), the remaining 20% or so affects credibility, trust, and revenue. We need people who can review AI efforts and correct or improve them. There are no mechanisms for this elevated training and not enough demand to create curriculums. MIT has identified this as an unaddressed problem for all industries.
10. Mergers, acquisitions, and consolidations will increase as our market matures and profits fall. There is already evidence of lighting companies closing, merging, and consolidating internal functions with other organizations. One year, during the LED growth spurt, a colleague counted over 700 new lighting companies. Few enter our industry now, as it has matured and margins have declined. As lighting companies and organizations struggle with the maturing market, they will be forced to make decisions for survival that were not a consideration when our market was expanding. There is no replacement for LED sources on the horizon and no energy savings incentive to develop one, so we will see incremental improvements and clashes for market share with fewer winners.
An Emerging New World This is an exciting time for those of us who like change; the exhilaration comes from the possibilities before us. Twenty years from now, our industry will not look the same. Some of our large companies will disappear and new leaders will emerge, not necessarily with just a lighting focus. Industry organizations will cease to exist or more likely adapt and/or consolidate with others. There are eight technologies now in exponential growth mode, and all involve lighting in different ways. This makes me optimistic about our adaptation into this emerging new world. There will always be a need for lighting and, consequently, practitioners who can understand and deliver quality designs and products.
Mark Lien, LC, LEED AP, is industry relations consultant for the IES.  |