And in times like these, freedom of navigation rides on the bow waves of U.S. Navy ships. As officers, you will help us increase American security and model American values worldwide. Our Sailors and Marines let the U.S. military project power anywhere on Earth. And so, we're depending on you to secure the world's sea lanes for the free flow of ships, commerce, and ideas. We're depending on you to sail, fly, and operate wherever international law allows. We're depending on you to deepen old alliances and forge new friendships. And we're depending on you to deter conflict and to keep the peace.
-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III, United States Naval Academy Commencement, May 24, 2024
If you were to look around your home and imagine losing every item that had been transported to its point of sale via ocean-borne trade, how many critical technologies, domestic appliances, articles of clothing, and various devices would be missing from your life? What if the same deprivations were applied to American businesses ranging from retail stores to manufacturing plants to medical facilities? And how would our entire service sector economy fare without the reliable use of undersea cables which support internet connectivity across the world? It is indisputable that America’s sea services, our forward deployed “away team” safeguarding a rules-based international maritime environment, will play a deciding role in the fate of our nation and of the global community. If America wants to prosper, to preserve its way of life, and to safeguard our people and interests, we as a nation must prioritize the strength, readiness, and resilience of our sea services. As Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III stated at the 2023 Naval Academy Commencement, “the lifeblood of the rules based international order is actually seawater.” Learn more here.
It is important to understand that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has produced repercussions felt far beyond the front lines. The initial Russian obstruction of Ukrainian grain shipments threatened to worsen food insecurity for millions of people from Africa to Asia, proving once again the vital role that maritime commerce plays in global stability. The war in Ukraine has also pushed Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran closer together. Russia and North Korea have even gone so far as to sign a defense treaty pledging to provide support if either nation is attacked. While a sincere mutual defense treaty between any of these belligerent nations is highly suspect and unlikely to result in full-scale military commitments on par with NATO, it has become apparent that the four nations are providing substantial support in other ways, namely military technology which is proving crucial on the battlefield. Iranian drones, North Korean munitions, and Chinese technology have all been used by Russia to support their invasion of Ukraine reflecting a growing military collaboration between these revisionist powers. The repercussions of this dangerous alliance can be felt across the globe from the Middle East to the South China Sea, from Europe to the Arctic, and beyond. Learn more here.
In the Middle East, the threats from extremist organizations and Iranian proxies persist throughout the region, but the most substantial threat to maritime commerce (and another reminder of how crucial safe and reliable sea lanes are to international commerce) comes from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen. Supposedly conceived as retaliation for Israeli military operations in Gaza, the Houthi rebels began launching strikes against commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea in November of 2023. Using relatively low-cost missiles and drones, the Houthi rebels were able to intimidate many shipping companies into foregoing the shorter and more efficient Red Sea route through the Suez Canal on to the Mediterranean, and instead taking the far longer and more costly route around Africa. The cost to international trade was felt immediately. United States naval forces began operations in defense of these commercial vessels, shooting down drones and missiles utilized by the Houthis. However, it became apparent early on in these operations that the cost disparity between high-tech American interceptors and low-cost Houthi projectiles was possibly unsustainable. Learn more here.
The Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, released the Navy’s Navigation Plan in September of 2024 with a bold emphasis on preparing the force for war with China by 2027. This year was not selected arbitrarily. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had previously ordered his armed forces to be ready for war by 2027. Within the Navigation Plan document are seven specific goals related to winning a direct conflict with China, coined “Project 33.” These seven goals are:
Ready the force by eliminating ship, submarine, and aircraft maintenance delays
Scale robotic and autonomous systems to integrate more platforms at speed
Create the command centers our fleets need to win on a distributed battlefield
Recruit and retain the force we need to get more players on the field
Deliver a quality of service commensurate with the sacrifices of our Sailors
Train for combat as we plan to fight, in the real world and virtually
Restore the critical infrastructure that sustains and projects the fight from shore
The United States and its allies are also attempting to overcome the numerical advantage China enjoys due to its expansive shipyard capacity. In this vein, the allies are pursuing capabilities rather than simply capacity. With the right mix of advanced weapon systems (particularly submarines which provide underwater dominance) this allied effort can potentially counter China’s vast but less advanced maritime force. As Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated, “sea power is a beacon projecting American power and American principles to the world. Our allies and partners depend on it. Our foes and rivals envy it.” Learn more here.
The 2024 Arctic Strategy published by the Department of Defense reminds us that we are an Arctic Nation. Unlike China, which claims to be a “near Arctic Nation” (a label which has little meaning other than providing a pretext for China to exploit the Arctic’s resources), America has vast coastlines and continental shelf area projecting into the Arctic. The Strategy also reminds us that the Arctic is a fast and effective route for an adversary like Russia to strike the American homeland. This means that Russian, and Chinese operations in the Arctic must be viewed as more than an attempt to exploit resources and trade routes.
Along our southern borders, threats of a more disbursed nature are prevalent. Rather than a single adversarial state actor (though Russia and China are both working to make inroads in Latin America) the disbursed threats come from transnational criminal organizations trafficking drugs and people. These matters, when occurring within America’s territorial waters, fall within the jurisdiction of the United States Coast Guard as part of its law enforcement operations. With the opioid epidemic and the influx of migrants to the United States, the Coast Guard’s operations along our coastlines are constantly expanding in scope and frequency. Learn more here.
This section explores various means by which the United States can maintain and even strengthen its current maritime standing. These means include strengthening and deepening alliances, prioritizing low-cost counter-drone weapons systems, expediting Navy shipbuilding operations, and more. Learn more here.
As we transition from two decades of land-based counterinsurgency operations in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, to great power competition with nations like Russia and China, our sea services will be the ones on the frontlines. If America wants to prosper, to preserve its way of life, and to safeguard our people and interests, we as a nation must prioritize the strength, readiness, and resilience of our sea services.
If you were to look around your home and imagine losing every item that had been transported to its point of sale via ocean-borne trade, how many critical technologies, domestic appliances, articles of clothing, and various devices would be missing from your life? What if the same deprivations were applied to American businesses ranging from retail stores to manufacturing plants to medical facilities? And how would our entire service sector economy fare without the reliable use of undersea cables which support internet connectivity across the world? None of the detailed analyses compiled in this report can be put to proper use unless the American people conduct such an inventory of their personal and commercial needs and recognize that maritime security is the only thing that provides for these necessities.
The current threat environment is defined by the first peer competitor to America’s maritime interests since the Cold War, with this peer adversary developing a web of alliances to overthrow the American-led rules based international order. These adversaries, in accordance with their own political and geostrategic ideologies, understand nothing short of indisputable strength as measured in military might. Indeed, these adversaries seek to overturn the rules-based international order primarily so that they can replace fair and legal arbitration with raw military might. If this were allowed to come to pass, the United States would not be the only nation held captive to the mercantilist whims of these bad actors. The world and many of its most vulnerable inhabitants would also come under the iron fist of governments that care not for human life, human dignity, or human rights.
With so much of our way of life, and the future of the international community, dependent upon control of the seas, the Navy League is encouraged by recent efforts of the United States Congress to reorient American national security in a way that once again addresses the role of maritime security. In recent years, Congress adjusted the Navy’s role under Title X to include “peacetime promotion of the national security interests and prosperity of the United States,” a recognition of the fact that even in peacetime our adversaries are actively working to deny America its economic and security interests in the maritime commons. The Navy and Marine Corps will not be alone in this fight, which is why in addition to expanded funding for Navy and USMC needs we are heartened to see Congress has worked to recapitalize our Coast Guard, support our Merchant Marine, and revitalize our shipbuilding industrial base.
The National Security Strategy released in 2022 outlines the primary threats to America and its interests abroad, providing a specific focus on the autocratic alliance forming between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Countering, deterring, or defeating this anti-democratic coalition will require strengthened and deepened alliances between the United States and ideologically aligned nations in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and beyond. The Strategy makes specific reference to ensuring freedom of trade and navigation through vital maritime trade routes such as the South China Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and how these maritime routes are essential not only to American interests but to global stability. As we can see, economic security and global stability requires strong American sea services. Despite this growing axis of autocracies, the United States enjoys a multitude of alliances dwarfing the collection of our adversaries. Such alliances are vital to America’s interests and our ability to outmaneuver, outgun, out-innovate, and outflank our enemies.
The war in Ukraine has pushed Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran closer together. Russia and North Korea have even gone so far as to sign a defense treaty pledging to provide support if either nation is attacked. While a sincere mutual defense treaty between any of these belligerent nations is highly suspect and unlikely to result in full-scale military commitments on par with NATO, it has become apparent the four nations are providing substantial support in other ways, namely military technology which is proving crucial on the battlefield. Iranian drones, North Korean munitions, and Chinese technology have all been used by Russia to support their invasion of Ukraine reflecting a growing military collaboration between these revisionist powers. The repercussions of this dangerous alliance can be felt across the globe from the Middle East to the South China Sea, from Europe to the Arctic, and beyond.
Perhaps no event in recent years has done more to shake the international order to its core than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Launched in February of 2022 (eight years after its illegal annexation of Crimea), the Russian invasion harkened back to a Europe in which national sovereignty was dependent upon military prowess and combat capabilities. Russia’s complete disregard for its neighbors’ right to exist shattered the decades of peace and prosperity enjoyed by the European community and ushered in a new era in which no country was truly safe. The effects of the war were felt far beyond the battlefields of Ukraine as one of the very first casualties was the reliable grain trade which provided critical food supplies for vulnerable populations from Africa to Asia. The initial risk to this absolutely invaluable maritime commerce threatened to create instability, mass migration, revolution and extremism across the developing world. International efforts were able to defuse this crisis, but the criticality and vulnerability of maritime trade had been laid bare for the world to see. Because of the role that maritime trade plays in every aspect of human activity, threats to Ukrainian water-borne trade can have disastrous impacts on populations thousands of miles away from the frontlines.
The use of drone warfare, and in particular surface and subsurface maritime drones, has also been transformational. Ukraine has no equivalent to Russia’s formidable navy. Yet, by utilizing drone warfare Ukraine has all but forced Russia’s navy out of the Crimean Peninsula and the Black Sea. Such asymmetric abilities will surely reshape maritime warfare operations for the foreseeable future. Of particular concern for the Russian fleet has been the Magura, a multi-purpose unmanned water-borne drone that was developed by Ukrainian forces. This weapon system, costing approximately $200,000 to produce, has damaged more than a dozen Russian warships each valued exponentially higher than the small Magura drone. Such asymmetric weapon systems allowed Ukraine to break through Russian blockades of Black Sea maritime lanes and to not only save the Ukrainian economy but also save countless lives in the developing world that depend on Ukrainian grain. It is not an exaggeration to say these new maritime drones have impacted global events far beyond the Black Sea and have altered calculations for maritime conflict indefinitely.
In the Middle East, the threats from extremist organizations and Iranian proxies persist throughout the region, but the most substantial threat to maritime commerce (and another reminder of how crucial safe and reliable sea lanes are to international commerce) comes from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen. Supposedly conceived as retaliation for Israeli military operations in Gaza, the Houthi rebels began launching strikes against commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea in November of 2023. Using relatively low-cost missiles and drones, the Houthi rebels were able to intimidate many shipping companies into foregoing the shorter and more efficient Red Sea route through the Suez Canal on to the Mediterranean and instead taking the far longer and more costly route around Africa. The cost to international trade was felt immediately. United States naval forces began operations in defense of these commercial vessels, shooting down drones and missiles utilized by the Houthis. However, it became apparent early on in these operations that the cost disparity between high-tech American interceptors and low-cost Houthi projectiles was possibly unsustainable. The United States is expending millions of dollars in interceptors to counter thousands of dollars-worth of Houthi drones while at the same time depleting our inventory of sophisticated air defense interceptors (which was perhaps Iran’s true motivation for backing the Houthi attacks on maritime shipping). It is possible that Iran’s support for the Houthis and China’s support for Russia are both at least partially intended to deplete American munitions rendering our forces unable to respond to new threats such as an invasion of Taiwan or an Iranian attack on a U.S. ally in the Middle East. Regardless of motivation, it is telling that Iran and its proxies chose to target maritime shipping as its primary method of retaliation. International trade’s reliance on maritime shipping makes it critical for the global community, while at the same time maritime commerce is extremely vulnerable.
The Houthi rebels operate out of the poorest country in the Middle East, Yemen. However, despite its negligible economy the nation borders one of the most strategically important maritime routes in the world. Vessels seeking to access the Mediterranean Sea must either round Yemen as they traverse the Red Sea en route to the Suez Canal, or they must completely circumvent the continent of Africa. Naturally, they would prefer the former option. As a result, the small and economically marginal Houthi rebels have the ability to substantially impact global affairs via disruptions to international shipping. The Houthi rebels have been engaged in repeated conflicts with Saudi Arabia for nearly a decade, and recently they have been in direct conflict with the United States and Israel due to their missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping, American navy vessels, and on Israel itself. Despite each of these sizable military powers pummeling Houthi operations, the group has not been dislodged or deterred. How America and its allies will attempt to end the reign of the Houthi rebels remains to be seen, but one thing that can be said for certain is the safety and security of maritime sea lanes in the Red Sea will be at risk for the foreseeable future. If we seek stability, peace and prosperity in the world, then the United States and its role as a guarantor of unimpeded maritime shipping is needed more now than anytime in modern history.
In the South China Sea, the rise of China as a sizable naval power is cause for concern not only for the United States but for all the nations in the region. While all eyes are on Taiwan as a potential flashpoint for full scale military conflict, China is already engaged in aggressive operations against other nations such as the Philippines. The Sabina Shoal, an area clearly within the Philippines’ territorial waters, is now being contested by China. Several recent incidents resulted in Chinese vessels ramming Philippine vessels to intimidate and physically harm them. These incidents reflect two truths about China — it does not care for the rule of law in maritime matters and is using “gray zone” operations to further its goals. These gray zone operations often include the Chinese Coast Guard or Chinese fishing fleets, both of which are technically not part of the Chinese military though their actions clearly further the goals of the Chinese military. By utilizing these forces rather than direct military confrontation, China is able to push the envelope without provoking serious repercussions. For the United States to respond in kind we will need to utilize our Coast Guard in place of our Navy, as the underlying issue is not warfare but rather lawfare and the legal rights of the Philippines over its own waters. The United States Coast Guard will also be an increasingly vital partner in countering Illegal Unregulated and Unreported Fishing (IUUF), a practice that threatens the protein source for millions of people in coastal or island nations.
The Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, released the Navy’s Navigation Plan in September of 2024 with a bold emphasis on preparing the force for war with China by 2027. This year was not selected arbitrarily. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had previously ordered his armed forces to be ready for war by 2027. Within the Navigation Plan document are seven specific goals related to winning a direct conflict with China, coined “Project 33”. These seven goals are:
The United States and its allies are also attempting to overcome the numerical advantage China enjoys due to its expansive shipyard capacity. In this vein, the allies are pursuing capabilities rather than simply capacity. With the right mix of advanced weapon systems (particularly submarines which provide underwater dominance) this allied effort can potentially counter China’s vast but less advanced maritime force. The premier weapons program under this initiative is the AUKUS agreement. AUKUS (an agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) will result in Australia gaining three to five of America’s Virginia-class attack submarines in the near future with Australia developing the ability to produce its own nuclear submarines after that. The agreement is a remarkable development as it involves substantial weapon and technology transfers between the partners and the eventual sale of one of America’s most advanced submarines. The agreement is now being used as a foundation for other similar agreements between the United States and allied nations that seek to leverage each other’s advantages in shipbuilding and technological expertise to develop deeper industrial relationships.
One such industrial agreement to be spawned in the wake of AUKUS is the ICE Pact, short for the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort. With the depletion of Arctic ice and the opening of new sea lanes in the high north, the Arctic has seen a race between nations to claim territory and natural resources. The United States is at a severe disadvantage in this regard as its current inventory of polar icebreakers includes two vessels. The Russians have dozens of such vessels and the Chinese are rapidly developing their own fleet to dominate this new strategically valuable region. Despite our best efforts, it is unlikely the United States will overcome its icebreaker deficiency any time soon if it is acting on its own. As a result, the ICE Pact would see the United States partner with Canada and Finland to jointly develop a new raft of icebreakers to better compete in the Arctic and blunt Russian and Chinese efforts to dominate the region.
The 2024 Arctic Strategy published by the Department of Defense reminds us we are an Arctic Nation. Unlike China, which claims to be a “near Arctic Nation” (a label which has little meaning other than providing a pretext for China to exploit the Arctic’s resources), America has vast coastlines and continental shelf area projecting into the Arctic. The Strategy also reminds us the Arctic is a fast and effective route for an adversary like Russia to strike the American homeland. This means Russian and Chinese operations in the Arctic must be viewed as more than an attempt to exploit resources and trade routes. Permanent basing of troops and weapon systems could pose a direct threat to the American people. Luckily, the United State is not alone in our efforts to counter these malign actors. Numerous NATO allies are also Arctic Nations with a direct stake in the activities of the high north. As a result, deeper engagement and cooperation with these allies will prove pivotal in America’s efforts to protect its own national interests in the Arctic.
Along our southern borders, threats of a more disbursed nature are prevalent. Rather than a single adversarial state actor (though Russia and China are both working to make inroads in Latin America) the disbursed threats come from transnational criminal organizations trafficking drugs and people. These matters, when occurring within America’s territorial waters, fall within the jurisdiction of the United States Coast Guard as part of its law enforcement operations. With the opioid epidemic and the influx of migrants to the United States, the Coast Guard’s operations along our coastlines are constantly expanding in scope and frequency. It is imperative the Coast Guard receive the funding and resources needed to address these crises along with its increasingly global mission, which includes operations in the Arctic, the Indo-Pacific, the Persian Gulf, and the Caribbean. The new line of National Security Cutters, currently under construction, will play a pivotal role in the Coast Guard’s law enforcement mission set, though these vessels will not only need maintenance and equipment but also renovations to their homeports as they will be larger than previous vessels and will require facilities that can accommodate them.
As we can see, America is once again at an inflection point. We must decide whether we will continue to be leaders of global security and the bastion of freedom or be subject to the dictates of our competitors who don’t share our values. If we see the criticality of our role in protecting the maritime rules based international order, then we must double down on American sea power. Our maritime forces are the forward deployed “away team” that keeps conflict from our doorstep while pushing our adversaries back on their heels. They provide deterrence and, when necessary, overwhelming force. As we transition from two decades of land-based counterinsurgency operations in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, to great power competition with nations like Russia and China, our sea services will be the ones on the frontlines. If America wants to prosper, to preserve its way of life, and to safeguard our people and interests, we as a nation must prioritize the strength, readiness, and resilience of our sea services.
Deepen partnerships with allied nations to foster innovation, deterrence against adversaries, and adherence to the rules-based international order.
Expedite the technology transfers required under the AUKUS agreement to ensure this vital partnership for Indo-Pacific security is not unnecessarily delayed due to excessive regulation and review.
Prioritize the development and deployment of lower-cost counter-drone technologies and weapon systems.
Expedite Navy shipbuilding by providing a steady demand signal to industry, investing in workforce development programs and in the submarine industrial base, and increasing the Navy SCN budget (Shipbuilding and Conversion) to reflect the impacts of inflation.
Prepare for a long-term conflict in the South China Sea by hardening military facilities, prepositioning supplies, developing resilient logistical infrastructure, and developing nontraditional resupply options.
Continue to support Ukraine while investing in the production of depleted munitions to ensure American forces have the firepower needed for a possible great power conflict.
Allocate greater funding for Coast Guard operations and shoreside infrastructure, recognizing the Coast Guard’s mission has expanded across the globe and plays a critical role in countering adversary “gray zone” operations, IUU fishing, and transnational criminal organizations. Particular focus should be given to the Coast Guard icebreaker fleet which must be expanded as rapidly as possible.
Work diligently to educate the American public on the precariousness of our current safety and economic security. Ensure the American people understand our way of life is highly dependent on the strength and capabilities of our sea services.
Support sea service-related youth programs such as the Sea Cadets and the Young Marines. These programs will produce the Sailors, Marines, and Mariners that we need to defend the homeland in the years to come.
