Study forecasts the future for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest
PORTLAND—A new study commissioned by NW Natural considers the possible paths forward for reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the Pacific Northwest over the next 30 years—while still ensuring customers have the energy they need on the coldest winter days.
Researchers evaluated the technology implications and the economies of several strategic solutions for achieving “long-term, economy-wide GHG reductions” in Oregon and Washington.
The study, Pacific Northwest Pathways to 2050: Achieving an 80% reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gases by 2050, conducted by Energy and Environmental Economics, focused on energy use within buildings and modeled four scenarios, two that use natural gas for space heating and two with fully electrified space heating.
In the words of the study, “A key question … is how the existing gas distribution system could be used to help achieve economy-wide deep decarbonization goals, while continuing to reliably meet regional peak energy demands. This low-carbon future is compared to what would be required of the region’s electric system—already a winter-peaking system—if it were to take on the gas system’s substantial winter peak heating loads, under a future where natural gas space and water heating were electrified.”
As the researchers noted, achieving an 80 percent reduction goal across two states “is an ambitious target … [with] implications for all residents, companies, and economic sectors in the region. NW Natural, as the gas distribution business serving most of Oregon’s population and the Vancouver, Washington, area, has an abiding interest in both understanding the role of a natural gas company in achieving this low-carbon vision, and in helping to achieve the sustainability goals of its customers and the broader region.”
The report concluded that “in all scenarios, a combination of fossil and renewable natural gas, either used in homes or in new power plants, continues to serve winter peak heating, and is consistent with achieving an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases in the region.”
“Many pathways exist to achieving decarbonization in the Pacific Northwest,” researchers acknowledged. “The challenge lies in the development and sustained deployment of the advanced technologies needed to transform the region’s energy economy over the next two to three decades.”
Speaking to American Gas, Kim Heiting, NW Natural’s senior vice president of operations and chief marketing officer, added, “With a 25 percent blend of renewable natural gas in our system by 2050, we can help our region achieve the economy-wide GHG reduction goal more affordably and with less risk than an electrification-only scenario. Leveraging NW Natural’s system retains customer choice and preserves energy system diversification.”
To read the complete report, visit bit.ly/Pathwaysto2050.