Natural gas has a positive impact on winter-related mortality rates
A new working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (www.nber.org/papers/w25681.pdf) has found that higher heating costs can have a direct, measurable and negative relationship to human health.
“Exposure to cold is one reason that mortality peaks in winter, and a higher heating price increases exposure to cold by reducing heating use,” according to the paper’s executive summary. “It also raises energy bills, which could affect health by decreasing other health-promoting spending.”
The recent shale gas boom has provided researchers a real-world scenario with which to examine the potential causal link between homeheating costs and mortality. The result: Natural gas, which tends to be more cost effective, can literally save lives.
According to the paper, because electricity and natural gas are both used for home heating—30 percent and 58 percent of households, respectively—electricity serves as a control. Researchers found that between 2005 and 2010, the price of natural gas relative to electricity fell by 42 percent. Based on a statistical analysis, the researchers concluded that natural gas price declines resulted in a 1.6 percent decrease in the mortality rates of households heated by natural gas.
The paper also noted that since 58 percent of American homes are heated by natural gas, that percent decrease translates to a 0.9 percent decrease in winter mortality for the United States overall, which represents over 10,000 lives spared each year thanks to affordable natural gas prices brought on by the recent boom in production.
The cost of home heating can be a significant financial burden for many households. In the United States, 17 percent of households spend over 10 percent of their income on home energy, and heating is the largest component of overall home energy consumption, despite the fact that it is only used for part of the year, according to the NBER.