HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SOUTH CAROLINA | For the most part, the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links unfolded last week in its gentle Lowcountry way, the Spanish moss hanging from the live oaks, the gators sunning themselves on lagoon banks and splashes of red plaid dotting the island while the perfect post-Masters event played out.
The setting couldn’t entirely hide the undercurrent of speculation swirling around the future of LIV Golf, which erupted midweek following the news that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is reappropriating some of its many billions, endangering the future of its controversial league.
One player manager with multiple clients competing in LIV’s Mexico City event last week suggested the league’s potential demise could be bad news for PGA Tour players, who could feel their own financial effects if the aggressive competitor goes away.
Another manager with LIV clients speculated that LIV will give up the ghost after this season but admitted he wasn’t sure of anything.
Jordan Spieth said he stayed busy midweek answering texts on his phone as the rumors and curiosity peaked.
“It was crazy,” Spieth said.
So where are we now?
Someplace between the yellow brick road, the road less traveled and what is probably a sudden, dead-end off ramp.
Since LIV Golf began, it has had an inordinate number of skeptics, particularly in the United States. They have made no secret of their desire to see it fail and it’s conceivable they may get their wish after this season, but the seeming certainty of LIV’s demise that flooded social media last Wednesday has again demonstrated the danger of believing what’s posted online.
No matter how bullish LIV CEO Scott O’Neil is about his league’s future, it is at a crossroads that will force it to stand on its own if it’s true that Saudi Arabia’s PIF has decided to cut its misguided investment at a reported $6 billion.
“If we keep the trajectory going the way we are and the revenue growth going, this is going to be a really good business for a really long time,” O’Neil said optimistically in Mexico City, noting the league has landed approximately $500 million in sponsorship dollars in recent years.
Still, it doesn’t take a mathematician to know that going from billions to millions in support is going backward.
What does this mean for the PGA Tour going forward?
It depends, of course, if LIV makes it to 2027.
The PGA Tour is rightly focused on its business, which is in the midst of its own renovation. Would it like to have Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm back? Yes, under the right circumstances, but the tour is operating from a position of strength.
Players have not forgotten who left and who filed a lawsuit against the tour.
“You can’t forget about that,” Spieth said.
DeChambeau, whose LIV contract ends after this season, would lose potential bargaining leverage if the league goes away but his ability to draw eyeballs makes him an attractive asset to both sides, though he means more to LIV than he would to the PGA Tour.
The Rahm question could be complicated. He’s believed to have one more year on his LIV deal and it’s rumored to be worth tens of millions before his on-course earnings. Is Rahm’s presence enough to keep LIV going another year without the PIF’s support?
“If I am a PGA Tour player, I want LIV to survive. These prize purses are pretty good. Competition is good for business.”
Scott O’Neil
Given Rahm’s recent refusal to accept the DP World Tour’s olive branch to remedy their differences, it seems unlikely he would accept whatever deal the PGA Tour might offer since he’s already turned the tour down once this year. Rahm has somehow managed to make himself the victim while taking a substantial nine-figure payout.
PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp, speaking on the “Straight Facts Homie!” podcast, said of LIV’s status last week, “I don’t know what the circumstances are. Once there’s clarity, we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. But we’re clearly not there yet.”
With Brooks Koepka’s return to the tour and Patrick Reed’s expected return in time for 2027, Rolapp has demonstrated a willingness to do what is in the best interest of the tour. Whether he would offer something like the Returning Member Program that Koepka accepted remains to be seen.
As the PGA Tour continues to work through its own redesign, LIV’s uncertain future has to factor into the equation. The tour’s signature events, which feature $20 million purses, were created as a direct response to LIV’s emergence, though they still don’t match the $30 million purses (combining individual and team competition) on LIV.
Rolapp said last month the tour is looking to have a primary schedule of 21 to 26 events including the majors, the Players Championship and the playoffs. That would mean doubling the number of signature events and, consequently, getting more from sponsors who already feel squeezed.
Should LIV go away, it seems unlikely the tour would reduce tournament purses but with its new for-profit arm launched in partnership with Strategic Sports Group, maximizing the profit margin will come into play.
Private equity groups, in case you didn’t know, like nothing better than a hefty return on their investment.
“If I am a PGA Tour player, I want LIV to survive. These prize purses are pretty good. Competition is good for business,” O’Neil said.
The PGA Tour has been operating from a position of strength for a while now, having withstood the LIV threat after initially underestimating it. The tour put aside the notion of trying to make a deal with LIV and, more than ever, that decision has been validated.
Given LIV’s inability to develop any real traction in the United States, perhaps it finds a path forward overseas where its events in South Africa and Australia, in particular, have thrived.
“I’m American. I love the U.S. market. It’s the No. 1 TV market in the world, period, end of sentence. The No. 1 sponsorship market in the world, period, end of sentence. In golf, in sport,” O’Neil said.
“But long term, do you want to bet on 340 million people or 7.5 billion people? That’s all I’m saying … I’m taking a 7.5 billion-person bet.”
The PIF has evidently decided not to take that bet, leaving LIV Golf – if it is to have a future – to take the road less traveled. More likely, it is sputtering toward its dead-end off ramp and, for many, it can’t get there soon enough.
Top: Reports have been circulating that LIV Golf could shut down after the 2026 season.
Hector Vivas, Getty Images