OLIVIA KABELL, Associate Editor, World Oil
Oil price averages for June saw a substantial recovery in prices, in contrast to repeated trends of decline in the previous months. Of the three major crudes, Brent was the only one to break into the $70/bbl range ($71.44/bbl), a price jump of 10.2% from May’s average. WTI and Dubai Fateh also showed modest increases of 9.2% and 8.3%, averaging $68.17/bbl and $68.50/bbl respectively. Despite the substantial jump in prices, EIA estimates remain low for when July data are compiled.
U.S. monthly production averages dipped in June, in contrast to May’s production numbers—the highest thus far for 2025. June production declined to 13.3 MMbpd, and EIA estimates for July suggest very little change to those numbers, once July data is compiled. Meanwhile, global oil production averaged 82.74 MMbpd during March 2025, up from 81.68 MMbpd in February. This compares to the 2024 average of 80.83 MMbpd.
U.S. natural gas prices for June showed a slight dip of 3.2%, down to $3.02/MMbtu. Meanwhile, the 12-month average posted another small gain for June, continuing a trend of small-but-steady increases this year. Meanwhile, EIA estimates are hopeful, suggesting that prices will recover once July data is compiled.
U.S. drilling activity continued to decline in June, with a final rig count of 554 units. Declines came from all three of the largest state producers, with losses in Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma. Other declines came from North Dakota, Utah and West Virginia. These were offset slightly by gains in Louisiana, Ohio and Wyoming.
Drilled but uncompleted wells showed a rare decline in y-o-y numbers across all regions, with monthly totals also showing a slight decline (0.8%) outpacing last month’s drop. Despite the decline across the board, individual regions saw fairly usual trends, with the Eagle Ford and the Bakken leading with 37.6% and 26.2% dips, respectively. Meanwhile, the Permian persisted in its number three position with an 18.6 decrease in units, while Appalachia (-7.7%), Haynesville (-1.6%) and the remaining Lower 48 (-0.1%) showed the lightest declines. Also worth noting is that the final unit count for June showed basin totals just above the 3,000 mark, suggesting that further decreases could push DUC numbers into the 2,000s range soon.
International rig counts continue to trend downwards, with the final total for May coming out at 1,003 units. The continued declines suggest that international rig counts could dip below the 1,000-unit mark before 2025 closes out. As with April’s numbers, much of the losses can be attributed to fluctuations of Canada’s onshore sector, due to spring break-up. Mild rig declines were also sustained in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with the first two focused on the onshore, while Africa lost more offshore units. Meanwhile, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific regions posted slight gains, divided between onshore and offshore units. WO
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