Haynes Boone’s survey, published twice annually, asks bankers to provide current oil and gas price decks, which determine producers’ borrowing bases. This year’s report features information from 28 banks and closely analyzes the data to determine the outlook for commodity prices.
KIM MAI, Energy Practice Group, Haynes Boone
Every spring and fall, banks reset the lending limits to oil and gas producers (“the borrowing base”). We survey energy bankers twice yearly and ask them to provide us with their current oil and gas price decks, which are used to determine oil and gas producers’ borrowing bases.
We received the spring version of these oil and gas price decks from 28 banks—a record number of participants, Fig. 1. We have analyzed the data and prepared the following report, which is the twelfth in our series, spanning from 2019 to 2025. Our survey is one of the leading sources of information for producers and energy lenders to read the pulse of senior debt markets and the availability of secured credit for oil and gas producers.
The borrowing base is determined by several factors. Each energy lender has its own proprietary algorithm to determine its borrowing base. Future expectations of commodity prices (the price deck) over the life of the loan are not the sole determiner. However, they are a principal variable in a bank’s calculations. Therefore, predictions regarding future borrowing base redeterminations are heavily influenced by future commodity price expectations.
KEY TAKEAWAYS – SPRING 2025
As the data prove out, there are several key thoughts that one can take from the Spring 2025 survey.
Similar long-term trendlines. Despite recent economic volatility spurred by uncertain global trade policy, the long-term forecasts for oil and gas prices in our Spring 2025 Energy Bank Price Deck Survey show remarkably similar long-term trendlines as our Fall 2024 survey, Figs. 2 and 3. Participating banks seem to be observing the current volatility as temporary in nature, with long-term price forecasts indicating a return to the price levels that were projected prior to the trade policy turbulence that began in Q1 2025. This is likely due to the unchanged critical assumption underlying the forecasting models: Global hydrocarbon supply will gradually continue to outstrip demand over the next decade.
Reduced oil price outlook. For oil, the approximately $10/BBL drop in oil prices experienced in April 2025 explains banks’ reduction of their oil price forecast for 2025 down to $58.30/BBL, from $61.89/BBL in the Fall 2024 survey, Fig. 4. This Spring 2025 survey shows about a $1.50/BBL decrease in year-to-year projected prices compared to the Fall 2024 survey but follows a similar path with average oil prices remaining in the $56.24–$57.24/BBL range through 2034. This general decrease in oil prices may be attributable to increase ed production volume expectations stemming from enhanced OPEC production and the Trump administration’s pro-production and deregulation agenda, interacting with relatively unchanged global oil demand forecasts.
Rising and then steadying gas prices. Despite a steady average increase in actual natural gas prices since September 2024, causing a notable increase in banks’ 2025 price projection to $3.50/MMBTU from $2.54/MMBTU in the Fall 2024 survey, the trendline in this Spring 2025 survey indicates a return to the same $3.15–$3.25/MMBTU price range as the Fall 2024 survey, Fig. 5. This return to a lower price range is due to the belief that future increases in natural gas demand stemming from global electrification will be met with corresponding supply increases, partly because of conducive oil and gas development policy in the U.S.
Some help from LNG. Another notable development in this Spring 2025 survey is the banks’ expectation that natural gas prices will remain at the current $3.50–$3.75/MMBTU range through 2026, before beginning to decline in 2027. Short-term natural gas demand increases, caused by LNG exports reducing domestic inventories and AI infrastructure buildout, may account for this natural gas price consistency through 2026. WO
Haynes Boone Energy Bank Price Deck Survey Participating Banks – Spring 2025
We would like to acknowledge and thank the following banks that participated in our spring 2025 survey, among several others:
Haynes Boone Partner KIM MAI is a member of the firm’s Energy Practice Group and is the lead author of the Energy Bank Price Deck Survey. She focuses her practice on complex upstream and midstream oil and gas transactions, including financing, acquisitions and dispositions and hedging transactions. Ms. Mai has been recognized for her work in the Texas Super Lawyers Rising Stars, Thomson Reuters, Energy and Natural Resources, 2014-2022. She was also included in the "Ones to Watch" category of Best Lawyers in America, Woodward/White, Inc., 2021-2024.