There is no hiding the fact that I have listened to, watched, attended, read about or covered a lot of Ryder Cups. Every one, in fact, starting in 1961 when I was a schoolboy listening to radio commentary of the match while watching a 1st XV rugger match at school right up to Whistling Straits in 2021.
Perhaps this gives me some credibility as I attempt to predict the result of this Ryder Cup, my 31st.
We are told repeatedly that Ryder Cups, like Walker, Curtis and Solheim Cups, are not played on paper. The US nearly always has the stronger team in these competitions, sometimes startlingly so. Take the 1981 Ryder Cup team captained by Dave Marr at Walton Heath, where this year’s AIG Women’s Open was held, for example. Of the 12 men in that team, 11 had or would win major championships. Some team; some credentials. But favouritism on paper does not always, perhaps not even often, lead to victory. It did at Whistling Straits in 2021 but did not in France in 2018.
In Ryder Cups, momentum generally swings from one side to the other, sometimes in the blinking of an eye. This was brought home to me as I began writing this column. I had just finished reading an article about how Europe’s strongest-ever Solheim Cup side had a very good chance of winning the Solheim Cup that started in Spain on Friday, and by doing so would win three Solheim Cups in succession when my phone pinged with an update: US had won all four of the opening morning’s foursomes.
Seemingly tiny episodes can turn Ryder Cups. Consider Craig Stadler in the Saturday morning four-balls of the 1985 match at The Belfry. Stadler faced a putt considerably shorter than an outstretched arm to win the hole and the match against Bernhard Langer and Sandy Lyle. After his ball had pirouetted around the hole, Stadler clasped a hand to his eyes and the colour rose in his cheeks. From thinking they would lead, 6½-5½, the US were tied with Europe, 6-6. Boosted by this momentum change, Europe went on to win, 16½-11½.
Consider how a few minutes of brilliant captaincy by Tony Jacklin influenced the 1983 match at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Seve Ballesteros, the heartbeat of Europe, was paired with Paul Way, at that time the youngest ever to represent Europe in a Ryder Cup. The Europe duo lost the first morning’s foursomes, and an angry Ballesteros sought out Jacklin. “I cannot play with Paul,†the proud Spaniard told his captain. “He is so young. I have to tell him everything. I have to teach him everything.â€
Replied Jacklin: “That’s why I paired you with him. Show him how to play, what to do, how to think. Remember, Seve: He reveres you. He thinks you’re God.â€
Bearing in mind that my knowledge of the past 30 Ryder Cups does not necessarily make me any more accurate of a soothsayer than another golf aficionado, what I hope is that after several years of a civil war in golf, a thrilling Ryder Cup will take place and largely obscure the game’s recent disruptions.
With his ego thus boosted, the Spaniard and Way were unbeaten in their four remaining four-balls, foursomes and singles matches. Though Europe lost, had it not been for Jacklin’s deft handling of Ballesteros (and Ballesteros’ coaxing of Way), the margin of defeat might have been much greater than one point. What Jacklin said and did that Friday morning in Florida may be one of the greatest demonstrations of captaincy I have ever seen.
Consider the first two hours of play of the Sunday singles at the 1999 match at The Country Club near Boston. Europe were leading, 10-6, after two days, but a US team came out swinging on Sunday morning and swept the first six singles, not one by less than 3 and 2.
And consider the last two hours on the Saturday afternoon four-balls at Medinah in 2012. Europe were not fully in the game to that point. Yet thanks to a brilliant tee shot on the 17th hole by Luke Donald, he and Sergio GarcÃa snatched a one-hole victory over Tiger Woods and Steve Stricker, and moments later McIlroy and an inspired Ian Poulter also won their match against Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson by one hole. Instead of leading 11-5, the US were pegged back to 10-6, and the mood in the Europe camp was upbeat. The next day, Europe won by one point.
Finally, consider how Europe’s chances of victory at Hazeltine in 2016 were badly affected before the match began. A satirical article about Americans by the brother of Danny Willett, the reigning Masters champion and Europe team member, caused such outrage that Darren Clarke, Europe’s captain, had no option than to rest Willett and to rip up his first morning’s pairings. From being on the back foot, Europe, underdogs in the US, could not recover, though it is doubtful whether even a full-strength team could have beaten the US.
It is often said that the team that putts better wins team matches. Tell that to Paul McGinley, Europe’s captain in 2014 and now a respected TV analyst. “That’s like saying in soccer the team that scores the most goals will win,†McGinley said. “We know that. A team culture has to be created to allow the boys to go out and perform well, putt well. Sergio GarcÃa was a far better putter in Ryder Cups than he was individually. What made him a better putter? The backroom team, the culture and the captain. The job of the captain is getting in the heads of the players, getting them excited and inspired, putting them in right partnerships so when they go on the golf course, they putt well. Putting two teams together and saying whichever putts better will win is too simplistic.â€
Captains are a huge part of Ryder Cups. Bernhard Langer was one of the most meticulous. Tony Jacklin was inspirational. Paul McGinley introduced techniques used in business. Paul Azinger and his pods of players at Valhalla in 2008 was inventive. Donald is quiet, thoughtful and has done little wrong. “Luke is very deep,†a Europe team member said. “Don’t underestimate his quietness for a lack of knowledge or an inability to prepare thoroughly.â€
An example of Donald's thoroughness came last week when team members were instructed to play with balls other than the ones they normally would use, thus making them better prepared for foursomes play. At Whistling Straits, the proposed pairings of Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick and Paul Casey and Lee Westwood were scratched at the last minute because one or the other player was unfamiliar with the performance of a certain type of ball.
So, which of these two strong teams will prevail after the best three-day event in golf? Bearing in mind that my knowledge of the past 30 Ryder Cups does not necessarily make me any more accurate of a soothsayer than another golf aficionado, what I hope is that after several years of a civil war in golf, a thrilling Ryder Cup will take place and largely obscure the game’s recent disruptions. As per McGinley, it is not just that the team that putts better will win any more than the longer drivers will have an advantage. Europe, for the first time ever, are marginally longer off the tee than the US.
There is little more than a slip of paper between these two teams, but home advantage is hugely in Europe’s favour. It has been noted that 75 percent of team matches are won by the home side. That being said, here goes: Europe will win perhaps by as little as one point or as many as two.
E-MAIL JOHN
Top: European Francesco Molinari hopes to be part of a victory celebration as he was when the Ryder Cup was played in France in 2018.
Ross Kinnaird, Getty Images
