This list is not static. As our industry evolves, our strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) change. The priority of each will be viewed differently depending on how it personally affects lighting professionals and/or their businesses. You may be able to add to this list based on the challenges or positive vision influencing your life.
Many of the market shifts noted in this column provide both a threat and an opportunity: strong enough to help or hurt—double-edged swords and mixed blessings. The question to be resolved is whether they are more advantageous than threatening. Artificial intelligence (AI), for example, will have a brief advantage for those who embrace it early. Conversely, those who are slow to use AI will be less efficient and effective than early adopters.
This list is merely a snapshot of our industry. Sometimes we see in captured images what is less visible to us otherwise. We can focus on a still image, but video, as in the movement of our lives, compels us to keep up and does not encourage our using the pause button. Only by stopping to concentrate can we analyze effectively. There is bias in my snapshot reflecting my preferences in content and experience. With humility and understanding that your take may differ, I offer my snapshot of our lighting industry.
“Remember, that what does not change is as important as what does”
Light is as fundamental to life as air and water. It is, and will always be, critical to sustaining life.
Electric light extends our days, freeing us to continue activities beyond daylit hours.
Electric light can be used to support health and treat medical conditions.
Electric light can enhance safety and security.
Electric light provides more illumination for lower costs than ever before.
Electric light can provide various color temperatures for health, mood and entertainment.
Electric lighting can be controlled in terms of intensity, color and duration.
LED lighting is highly efficient and small enough to integrate into other building components and appliances.
Strong expertise still exists in all lighting skill sets (although researchers are being repurposed, and the most experienced professionals are aging out of our industry).
The lighting industry has been progressing incrementally in recent years with no major technological breakthroughs. Most of our recent innovations have been from combining more features into products and/or adding converging technologies.
LEDs are commodity products, having matured to the point where the marketplace accepts current price and performance levels.
As prices and profits declined, research on lighting technologies slowed or stopped.
The IES, which developed standards and otherwise established and supported the lighting industry, has seen significantly less support from manufacturers in recent years. The IES uniquely unites the disparate skill sets in our industry, bringing together lighting researchers, designers, educators, manufacturers, utilities, energy service companies and more under one big nonprofit umbrella to share and learn from each other. Together, they write the standards that provide definitive guidance for lighting practice, applications and metrics as well as educational content. Without support, these standards will be written by other organizations not familiar with our industry or not developed at all. Without support, the focused networking with lighting colleagues across multiple skill sets will be diminished.
Electric lighting is taken for granted. We all grew up with it, it is readily available and is ever present without our contribution or understanding of its complexities.
The lighting industry is converging with other technologies at an unprecedented pace. Most lighting professionals will have to learn new skills rapidly.
The manufacturer-based educational facilities that were providing critical lighting information as well as product training have focused mostly or entirely on the product training without addressing major market shifts with new curriculum.
The incentives for Emerging Professionals to consider lighting as a career have decreased.
Dave DiLaura, in his “History of Lighting” presentation about two decades ago, warned that lighting could become a commodity like paper towels. As LEDs matured, some of our market has stabilized so that lamps and luminaires can be put in the same shopping cart with other commodities. With few significant lighting innovations or changes, consumers are increasingly familiar and comfortable with selecting lighting products.
AI – AI tools for marketing, lighting design, product manufacturing, enhanced customer service, lighting control, project collaboration, video creation, unique image creation and writing text exist now and are slowly being adopted by lighting professionals. – Specific AI lighting products are available for horticulture to target and treat plant diseases and others with sensors that can discern objects to minimize nuisance tripping on motion sensing (pets, debris blowing past, etc.).
Electrification – With increasing kilowatthour rates due to demand exceeding supply for the foreseeable future, lighting retrofits to maximize energy efficiency in buildings are more marketable with a faster return on investment. – A holistic approach to maximizing efficiencies is optimal with a team that evaluates lighting, HVAC and the building envelope for coordinated solutions.
Renewables – Ambitious goals by lighting and other companies to achieve net-zero or low-carbon goals have advanced the wind and solar industries. – LED technology is compatible with direct current sources.
Sustainability – There has been renewed momentum and focus on the sustainable aspects of lighting beyond energy efficiency. – CEOs are now listing sustainability as a top priority. – A trend toward miniaturization contributes to less material, shipping and distribution costs and reduced material in the waste stream. – Lighting manufacturers are promoting 3-D-manufactured products.
Quantum computing – It will accelerate computing speed and machine learning. – One company speaking at the MIT EmTech conference this year was PSIQuantum, with a mission to “build and deploy the world’s first useful quantum computers.” They are building in the Quantum and Microelectronics Park being developed in Chicago. – There are three nations, China, Japan and the U.S., selling quantum computers now for about $15 million. The U.S. is considered the leader in this computing revolution.
Lighting for health – The complexity of refining metrics that can address the significant variables in human metabolism—let alone other life forms—has proven difficult. If we can standardize ways to improve human health through electric lighting, then the demand for new products would surge from consumers who could afford them.
AI – While new jobs will be created, significant re-skilling will be needed for workers displaced by AI in the lighting industry. Expectations will be increased as AI speeds up processes.
Assimilation – Large electronics and Internet companies have a financial incentive to centralize the control of electrical devices and appliances. The first to combine controls to simplify using our toys and tools will lead a profitable market shift. These companies are large enough now to assimilate some of the peripheral industries that they will be controlling with their key offerings. Should they be rewarded further for their efforts, it seems even more likely that disintermediation will raise their profits. With profits falling on LED products, the largest producers have manufacturing advantages difficult for small players to compete against. This additionally supports the shift to producers that can be competitive on commodity electric lighting, the bulk of lighting sales.
Electrification – Elon Musk stated that AI will run out of electricity and transformers in 2025. – Some large urban areas are at peak supply now and unable to handle the increased loads of AI, EV charges, data centers and cryptocurrency. – New power generation for data centers will be primarily funded by technology companies, not utilities. The lighting community is involved with electric utilities but less so with technology companies. – Supply cannot ramp up to meet demand short term, so kilowatt-hour rates will rise.
Renewables/sustainability – Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, said, “We’re not going to hit the climate goals anyway.” He added that sustainability objectives may take a back seat—“All of that will be swamped by the enormous needs of this new technology,” referring to AI electricity demands. “Because it’s the arrival of an alien intelligence, right—something we don’t understand—we may make mistakes with respect to how it’s used, but I can assure you that were not going to get there through conservation,” he added. – The tech industry is now moving toward nuclear power and minimizing its progress on wind and solar as its needs have exceeded expectations. – This trend will slow progress on non-nuclear sources.
Quantum computing – It will accelerate expectations for faster response times. – Quantum computing is capable of compromising encryption used for personal and business security measures. The extreme speed allows for faster testing of vulnerabilities.
If the above resonates with you as accurate, then consider how we can take advantage of our strengths and opportunities while being aware of our weaknesses and preparing for impending threats. Remember, that what does not change is as important as what does.
Mark Lien, LC, LEED AP, is industry relations consultant for the IES.