Jeremy Branch was holding a somewhat routine recruitment meeting in a high school library last fall, although a bit of nostalgia was attached to the session since he had graduated from that south-central Pennsylvania school a few years prior.
He was warmly greeted, and the students and parents listened intently and asked questions familiar to him—about dorms and meals, SAT scores, and the FAFSA.
But when he talked about the value of college—a discussion meant to reassure the crowd that their commitment to higher education was worth it—a man stood up and changed the tone.
“That’s not true,” he said. “My nephew went to your school and he can’t find a job, but he’s still paying off the debt he took on.”
Branch, senior assistant director of enrollment management for Penn State University’s Brandywine campus, calmly noted that each student’s experience is different and convinced the man that his nephew may find things will be better soon. But the interaction stuck with him, and he now believes it may have been indicative of a change in tone he’s found more often as he talks about the value of college with prospects in his upper-middle-class recruitment area.
“That student may have had a C-average and done nothing to enhance his college education besides attend class—and even do that intermittently. But the debt he acquired is front and center.”
Branch said past generations didn’t talk much about college debt and were less likely to question whether a bachelor’s degree was worth it.
“Then millennials came along and wanted to talk about it—a lot. And then the next generation came along and said ‘Oh, we’re not just going to talk about it, we’re going to make it public on every platform available.’”
Branch’s example shows how one big issue in higher education—student loans—has affected how, in two significant ways, the return on investment (ROI) for college is evaluated. There is a perceived value among those considering attending and an actual value for those who graduate and then calculate the cost of their education in relation to their earnings.
And debt is a significant factor in both of those scenarios, but only one of several growing forces determining whether college is actually or perceived to be, worth the time, money, and effort.
The issue of college value—a touchpoint in any discussion about higher ed at the kitchen table, the college admission office, or the highest levels of policymaking—has become even more prominent and complex.
It’s now commonly referred to as college’s return on investment, and experts say students and their families more often think of it in those terms rather than considering the value of the college experience or other less tangible ways college attendance matures and expands the thinking of young people.
But beyond that practical approach to the investment in higher education, college enrollment has been buffeted by a series of other forces, including the pandemic; broad publicity about college debt; the expanse of online learning; new thinking that one doesn’t need a degree for success; and generational changes that shift demographics, communication, and attitudes.
“Since the 1980s, postsecondary education has become the most well-traveled pathway to economic success,” says Anthony Carnevale, research professor and director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW). He has written broadly on the issue and CEW ranks 4,500 collegesbased on their return on investment. “However, today (higher education) is facing some very strong forces that are changing how people think about its value,” Carnevale says.
While data from Carnevale and other sources show that having a bachelor’s degree still results in significantly better earnings and a better life, there is mixed data about how valuable students and families believe it is. Meanwhile, specific pathways are increasingly shown to have a dramatically stronger payoff and students and families are more often becoming educated about those programs and majors—and choosing them.
Michael Dunn, dean of college and career counseling at Eagle Rock School and Professional Development Center in Estes Park, Colorado, works with varied-income families with a wide range of postsecondary learning experiences.
“All of the students I work with understand that college is important, but they have a very much less comfortable relationship with debt than people I grew up with and want to be sure it is worth it,” he says.
Research shows that education in specific fields has a better ROI and that students are more aware of those distinctions.
“Now, in response, colleges are touting graduation rates and job placement. But kids are more savvy; they want to know if the university is producing data that includes working at McDonalds or Starbucks,” Dunn says. “They want specifics.”
Chris Horne, director of college counseling and alumni support at Girard College, a K–12 boarding school in Philadelphia that serves students with limited financial resources and with a single guardian or parent, says he’s seen a similar trend.
“In the last five years, I’ve seen students and families examine the value of college more closely than in years past due to several factors. Some have seen people they know either drop out of college or be underemployed and high school counselors are more aware of non-college options that could benefit students, so they’re introducing families to these opportunities.”
Carnevale points out that the perceived value of college has diminished, though surveys vary on the amount and cause.
“College enrollment is declining, and recent research verifies the public’s skepticism about the value of postsecondary education,” he says. “Just half of Americans think the benefits of college are worth the cost, according to a recent survey.”
That Public Agenda report found that 51 percent of Americans say college is a questionable investment because of “high student loans and limited job opportunities.” It also reported that:
A recent survey by the Association of American Colleges and Universities and the Bipartisan Policy Center indicates about 60 percent of Americans say a degree from college is worth the effort and cost. It says that results vary widely with political affiliation and age of respondents.
For instance, it reports that around 60 percent of those born from 1996 to 2012—Gen Z and millennials—say college is definitely or probably worth the investment. Only about 54 percent of Gen Xers, born from 1965 to 1980, and 59 percent of baby boomers, the adults born between 1946 and 1964, say it is worth it.
Another recent study by New America shows that overall the number of Americans who believe colleges have “a positive effect” on the country has declined 14 percent since the time the think tank started its annual survey in 2017. However, its research showed that 76 percent of those surveyed somewhat or strongly agree that “education beyond high school offers a good return on investment.”
Carnevale points out that the public’s perception about value often doesn’t match the actual return on the investment, which he has often promoted since becoming head of the Georgetown CEW in 2008.
His research shows that while roughly two-thirds of jobs required no more than a high school diploma 50 years ago, more than two-thirds of jobs require at least some postsecondary education or training today.
“Similarly, workers with postsecondary education now hold a larger share of good jobs—those that pay at least $45,000 at mid-career,” he says. In 1980, almost 30 percent of all good jobs went to workers with a high school diploma or less and now it’s about 20 percent, he says.
He notes that high school graduates, workers with some college education, and those with associate degrees all earn 28 percent or less of the amount earned by those with a bachelor’s degree.
According to Forbes magazine, government statistics show the median salary for workers with high school diplomas is $38,792, with an average unemployment rate of 3.7 percent as of 2019. By contrast, the median salary for workers with bachelor’s degrees is $64,896, and their unemployment rate is about 2.2 percent.
“Over the course of their careers, college graduates can earn hundreds of thousands more than those who don’t attend college,” the author concludes.
Dunn believes that other factors should be weighed in any discussion about college value, including whether it improves the lives of nontraditional students. He hopes scales like the Social Mobility Index will become more prominent.
That scale measures “the extent to which a college or university educates more economically disadvantaged students (with family incomes below the national median) at lower tuition and graduates them into good paying jobs.” It calls for “focusing the chase for ‘prestige’ around lowering tuition, recruiting more economically disadvantaged students, and ensuring that enrolled students graduate into good paying jobs.”
He also believes the new generation of students’ interest in service may be underreported, though some college rankings do offer students information about whether a college makes service a priority.
Other experts believe that colleges have failed at their job and the underperformance has been exacerbated by the pandemic and problems with the economy.
“There’s a key distinction to make between short- and long-term trends. In the short term, we see a hot labor market that’s leading employers to drop college degree requirements from job postings,” says Preston Cooper, senior fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), who has recently completed a detailed evaluation of college ROI for the conservative think tank. “The result is lower ROI and fewer students attending college. But it’s anyone’s guess whether those economic trends will continue.
“In the long term, there’s definitely been a shift in perceptions: More and more students are realizing that not all college degrees are created equal. Students now understand that a bachelor’s degree isn’t an automatic ticket to financial success,” Cooper says, adding that colleges too often have not provided valuable options and the public is just more aware of it today.
FREOPP is highly critical of college costs and college value generally and argues for more direct accountability for higher education and less support.
Carnevale emphasizes repeatedly that the actual value of a degree is very much dependent upon the program and college that are chosen and says students increasingly understand that. However, he believes there should be much more transparency about the return on investment of specific programs.
“A bachelor’s degree generally will still be the engine on the train and offer the best return. However, a lot of people will be told that is not true. There is an access-to-information problem here and students and families need to have good information that thoroughly explains how they can get value from a college degree,” he says.
Marie Morris, president of the Higher Education Consultants Association and founder of Beyond 18 College Consulting in Portland, Oregon, says, however, that student performance and student passion for a career is important in college choice and in the value they obtain.
She says data about the best careers for ROI should not keep students from following a career path that interests them or fills a societal need. And it should not cause family and advisers to excessively limit their exploration.
“I believe the college itself will not create a better job or income, it is what the student does with their college opportunity or experience. Outside of a few majors such as engineering and nursing, I am not convinced the major is that important. I think students should major in outdoor leadership because they love it, but make sure to perhaps have an internship or summer job at the bank too. That may be an extreme, but experiences like that make them employable.”
She and Dunn are concerned about an overemphasis on fields where the pay is the highest. They are alarmed by the decrease in students majoring in education, for instance.
“Education majors are being eliminated due to low interest and possibly low ROI,” Morris says. “Engineering will always remain high, especially when mom and dad get more concerned about how the investment pays off.”
James Paterson is a writer and former school counselor living in Lewes, Delaware.
There is a mounting number of societal forces changing both the perceived and actual value of college. Experts vary widely on how to weigh their effect, especially on the role they will play in the future.
The Pandemic: It may have affected the actual ROI in a number of ways, positively and negatively, experts say. The dramatic effect it had on the economy may have caused some to seek out a college degree to improve their employability or because they had time or government support. Conversely, it may have discouraged some who heard about graduates unable to find work. Aid provided during the pandemic and college debt relief may also have had an effect.
“Worry about college value is even more acute because of the pandemic: It has placed a magnifying glass on families’ finances, and it’s getting increasingly difficult to scrape together enough money to cover out-of-pocket costs,” says Chris Horne, director of college counseling and alumni support at Girard College, a K–12 boarding school in Philadelphia that serves students with limited financial resources and with a single parent or guardian.
Location Shifts: Beyond its other effects, the pandemic expanded online learning, and perhaps people’s comfort with other forms of credentials and may have caused students to seek colleges close to home more often, according to Michael Dunn, dean of college and career counseling at Eagle Rock School and Professional Development Center in Estes Park, Colorado. Both can affect perceptions of college value and their payoff for the amount spent.
Rising College Costs and Debt: These two problems are key factors in the actual ROI of college and people’s perception of college value, especially with an abundance of publicity about both.
“There is a lot of negative press about college—and especially about college debt, says Jeremy Branch, senior assistant director of enrollment management for Penn State University Brandywine. “Before, if a kid was crushed by a student loan, you needed to know them personally to know that. Now it is all over social media and the discussion about it fills the traditional media. That affects people’s perceptions”
The Startup Hype: Some successful people, particularly in the tech industry, have talked about how they succeeded without a college degree. Also, the general romanticization of entrepreneurship and possibilities for online commerce have perhaps made it easier to believe one can skip over higher education en route to success.
Community College Attention: Additional talk about the value of trades and discussion about free community college may have an effect on data about college value, perhaps diminishing perceptions about the ROI of a bachelor’s degree or, alternatively, making a college pathway more accessible.
Generational Changes: Do the students graduating from high school now favor service to their community over making a better income? Does the growing length of time it takes to become an adult cause students to diminish their view of college or be less rigorous in seeking their first job, both of which can affect ROI? Has the extraordinary use of social media changed perceptions—perhaps magnifying concerns such as safety or student debt—or the attractiveness of the college experience?
Branch says students seem future-focused at an even younger age, describing a meeting with high school students where each student said that as freshman they could thoroughly spell out a career path in detail. “I definitely think they are doing much more research and giving it more thought upfront into what they want to study.”
That, he says, means they value college but will be focused on finding the right program.
The College Experience: Do images of the college green, Saturday’s football game, and an easy campus lifestyle still make college seem more valuable to prospective students?
“I would say with the pandemic, the concern about having the ‘typical college experience’ was thrown out the window,” says Marie Morris, president of the Higher Education Consultants Association and founder of Beyond 18 College Consulting in Portland, Oregon.
“Poll after poll shows that what prospective students want most from college is a job—a well-paying job,” says Preston Cooper, senior fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, a conservative think tank. “All the other aspects of the campus experience are nice to have, but the job is most important. For colleges and departments, it’s critical to put that track record front and center.”
Others, however, say that many students still are attracted to the lifestyle they may have on a college campus and many colleges are betting on that and expanding services and facilities to enhance the experience.