OLIVIA KABELL, Associate Editor, World Oil
Bucking earlier predictions of further losses, crude oil prices recovered in June, though they did not reach April’s levels. The rise is predicted to be short-lived when July numbers are compiled. Of the three major crudes, Brent made the greatest recovery, up 6.6% from May’s figure to an average $87.15/bbl. WTI was close behind, increasing 4.4% to an average $83.63/bbl. Dubai Fateh was the exception, dropping a further 1.7% to an average $82.17/bbl.
The U.S. monthly production average remained largely the same for May (13.2 MMbpd) when compared with April numbers and represents a 6.5% increase from a year ago. Worldwide oil and NGL production, meanwhile, continued to creep upward, gaining another 350,000 bpd to average 100.42 MMbpd. Compared to the 2023 average of 98.99 MMbpd last month’s figure was up 1.43 MMbpd, or 1.4%. OPEC production, not counting Russia, was up 580,000 bpd during June, or a gain of 1.8%. That gain was offset by a 250,000-bpd decline in Non-OPEC/Non-OECD countries.
U.S. natural gas prices continued to rise in June, averaging $2.53/MMbtu. Breaking a several-month decline, the 12-month average also rose slightly to $2.39/MMbtu. According to EIA estimates, the increase is expected to continue when July numbers are compiled.
U.S. drilling activity continued a trend of decline from May, with an average overall count of 588 rigs active in June. The decline from May to June came largely from Texas and Oklahoma, which each suffered seven-unit losses—the former between Districts 2, 3, 6, 8 and 8A. West Virginia also lost two rigs, with a single-rig loss in Ohio. Meanwhile, the only monthly increases occurred in California (up two rigs) and North Dakota (up one unit).
Drilled but uncompleted well numbers for the U.S. resumed a decline in the period from May to June, with a continued year-on-year decline, as well. The final DUC count for June rested at 3,135 wells after a nine-well loss from May’s figure. Per multi-month trends, the Bakken and Eagle Ford regions posted declines of 33.4% and 40.1%, respectively. Though small, there were also declines for Appalachia (-7.3%), the Permian (-11.1%) and the remaining Lower 48 States (-7.7%).
International rig count. Drilling activity continued to drop in May, with a total rig count of 1,058 units—a 40-rig drop from the month prior. Even so, year-on-year numbers eked out a small gain of 15 units, compared with May 2023. The drop from April to May is largely due to Canada, where the annual spring break-up of ice constrained activity. None of the regions across the globe posted increases in rig count from April to May. WO
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