Lee Nichols, Vice President, Content/Editor-in-Chief
Over the next 25 yr, global petrochemicals demand is forecast to increase exponentially, rising from approximately 450 MMtpy in 2025 to > 500 MMtpy in 2035 and upwards to nearly 600 MMtpy by 2050 (FIG. 1). Most of this increase in demand is attributed to a stark rise in petrochemicals demand in non-OECD Asia, primarily due to a surge in Asia’s middle class.
According to the Brookings Institute and data from World Data Lab, more than 3.5 B people were considered part of the consumer class in 2020—i.e., those that spent around $12/d in 2017 purchasing power parity. Of these 3.5 B people, half are in Asia, which is a significant increase since 2000 when 70% of the consumer class was in OECD countries, primarily in the West. By 2030, the consumer class is forecast to increase to nearly 5 B people, with Asia comprising the bulk of market share growth. This socioeconomic class has more purchasing power for many goods, most of which are comprised of petrochemicals. The significant increase in Asian citizens entering the consumer class will be the driving force for petrochemicals through the rest of the decade.
Because of this forecasted demand, new petrochemical production capacity continues to be built throughout the world, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. At the time of this publication, Gulf Energy Information’s Global Energy Infrastructure database was tracking more than 400 active petrochemical projects around the world. More than half of these projects are in Asia and are being constructed to satisfy future petrochemicals demand.
As asset owners continue to develop grassroots projects, expand existing capacity or integrate petrochemical units into existing refining facilities, technology companies continue to develop innovative pathways to optimize processing routes and operations. The evolution of petrochemical technologies, processes and equipment is the primary focus of this month’s issue. This includes several detailed case studies, novel processing technologies, catalysts, engineering techniques and systems to enhance operations, increase processing efficiencies and build a better, safer and more profitable petrochemical industry. HP