ANALYSIS
Global Golf Post handicaps
TEAM USA
Scottie Scheffler
Career Ryder Cup record: 2-0-1 (team: 1-0)
LOCK
Despite not yet owning a PGA Tour win, Scheffler was picked as the 12th man on the 2021 U.S. team and had a breakout victory over Jon Rahm in singles. Now the No. 1 player in the world – who stunningly has finished within the top 12 in each of his past 17 PGA Tour starts – he is America’s leading man heading to Rome.
Patrick Cantlay
Career Ryder Cup record: 3-0-1 (team: 1-0)
Cantlay has been a remarkably consistent player who is well above average in each of the major statistical categories. Over the past six months, he is the second-best American in Data Golf’s true strokes gained metric, behind Scheffler. Notably, Cantlay is on pace to have the most productive putting year of his career. You can start getting his team bag ready.
Xander Schauffele
Career Ryder Cup record: 3-1-0 (team: 1-0)
Schauffele and Cantlay – close friends from southern California – won both of their foursomes matches paired together in 2021 at Whistling Straits. They are also 4-3 as partners in two Presidents Cup. You can bet your mortgage that they will be reunited once again in Rome. Schauffele’s floor is about as high as any American golfer not named Scheffler over the past year.
Justin Thomas
Career Ryder Cup record: 6-2-1 (team: 1-1)
PROBABLE
Thomas has struggled mightily throughout much of the year, especially in the majors (MC-T65-MC), and is statistically behind the likes of Eric Cole and Denny McCarthy when searching for the hottest hands in American golf. But he has earned the benefit of the doubt given his outstanding Ryder Cup (and Presidents Cup) record. Only injury or his play falling off a cliff will keep J.T. from being in Italy.
Wyndham Clark
Career Ryder Cup record: None
Clark is sitting pretty at No. 2 on the American points list and has a substantial lead over No. 3 Brooks Koepka. It would be unlikely for the U.S. Open champ to fall five spots in such a short amount of time. Regardless, Clark – whom Data Golf ranks as the fifth-best American over the past six months and the eighth-best player overall – almost certainly has earned his way onto the team.
Brooks Koepka
Career Ryder Cup record: 6-5-1 (team: 2-1)
If Koepka has a respectable showing later this month at the Open Championship, he will cement his qualification on points (currently No. 3, with six automatic spots available). But with LIV players likely eligible to be captain’s picks and Koepka back to his winning ways, the PGA champ’s selection is a strong likelihood even if he were to slip out of the top six.
Jordan Spieth
Career Ryder Cup record: 8-7-3 (team: 2-2)
If you are going purely by stats, Spieth is solidly in the 8-12 range for the American side. He has been volatile this year, recording top-five finishes at Bay Hill, Innisbrook, Augusta, Harbour Town and Muirfield Village – but also five missed cuts. He could be the most experienced player on the team and his partnership with Thomas has proven fruitful.
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa has fallen to No. 20 in the world and has only one top-10 finish in his last 11 PGA Tour starts, which is quite different from when he was No. 1 on the American points list in 2021. However, he was terrific in Wisconsin, and his elite ball-striking (No. 5 in strokes gained tee-to-green this season) remains tidy, so it’s hard to see him playing his way off the U.S. core group.
Tony Finau
Career Ryder Cup record: 3-3-0 (team: 1-1)
Data Golf lists Finau as the fourth-best American in the past 12 months, although he has cooled off recently – aside from a victory in late April in Mexico – and is only No. 18 on the U.S. Ryder Cup points standing. Still, Finau is No. 14 in the OWGR and has enjoyed personal success on European soil in a Ryder Cup, going 2-1-0 in the 2018 loss in France. He remains near the top of the PGA Tour in birdie rate, which is a valuable asset to have in four-ball sessions.
RICKIE FOWLER
CAREER RYDER CUP RECORD: 3-7-5 (TEAM: 1-3)
Fowler has posted a standard of play for the past six months that outweighs his OWGR (No. 35) and place on the American points list (No. 16) before winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Data Golf has him as the fourth-best American in the past six months and No. 10 in its overall rankings. The door is open for him to make the team, although his poor Ryder Cup record isn’t helpful.
Max Homa
Homa has been on the struggle bus for the past few months and is down to No. 22 in Data Golf’s overall rankings. Having said that, he recently went 4-0 in the 2022 Presidents Cup and has substantial credit in the bank for his five PGA Tour victories since February 2021. He is also still No. 6 on the U.S. points list.
Sam Burns
ON THE BUBBLE
Like Homa, Burns also has five PGA Tour wins since 2021, and his victory in the WGC-Match Play Championship may count a little extra. But he never has been better than T20 in 13 major starts, was 0-3-2 in last year’s Presidents Cup and statistically is not in the U.S. top 12 for strokes gained over the past three-, six- and 12-month periods – the last two of those points being a differentiator between Burns and Homa. Burns is on the right side of the bubble for now.
Cameron Young
In theory, Young should be on the team. He had a great start to the year – coming off a stellar 2022 breakout performance – but is now on a run of decidedly mediocre golf since a T7 at the Masters. His putting stats also are among the worst on the tour, a tough marker to have going into an event traditionally swayed by putting. If he could recapture some form, it would be a far more straightforward selection for captain Zach Johnson.
Dustin Johnson
Career Ryder Cup record: 12-9-0 (team: 2-3)
After signs of life with a T10 at the U.S. Open, Dustin Johnson looms large as a potential 12th man. He went 5-0-0 in the 2021 Ryder Cup and was dynamite alongside Morikawa. In reality, Johnson is still a top-30 player in the world despite tumbling after joining LIV. He could use a high finish in the Open at Royal Liverpool to state his case. The fact that a LIV event finishes near Chicago just five days before the Ryder Cup starts overseas is not ideal for his candidacy.
Russell Henley
Guess who has been a top-12 American in strokes gained for the past three, six, 12 and 24 months? That would be Russell Henley, one of only six U.S. players (Scheffler, Cantlay, Schauffele, Spieth and Morikawa being the others) in that stratosphere. He would not be the sexiest selection, but Henley could be a great course fit – the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour would be a nice asset for the narrow and quirky Marco Simone – and he deserves a meaningful look.
Keegan Bradley
Career Ryder Cup record: 4-3 (team: 0-2)
After his recent win at the Travelers Championship, Bradley is in the running for a captain’s pick. Let’s not go crazy, though. In his previous eight starts, Bradley did not register a top-20 finish. He’s a solid candidate, but the strokes-gained metrics suggest he still has work to do if he wants to make the team.
DENNY McCARTHY
LONG SHOT
This isn’t as far-fetched as one might assume. McCarthy has an impressive nine top-25 finishes since February and is a standout putter, routinely ranking near the top of the tour. It will take something special from him for the rest of the summer, but he isn’t out of consideration yet.
BRYSON DeCHAMBEAU
Career Ryder Cup record: 2-3-1 (team: 1-1)
It’s highly unlikely, but not impossible. DeChambeau tied for fourth at the PGA Championship and finished T20 at the U.S. Open. He probably needs to win the Open Championship to make it. For a science-minded guy, chemistry is not his strongest asset.
Kurt Kitayama
Kitayama’s car is either moving 80 mph or crawling at a school-zone pace. He beat a star-studded field at Bay Hill, reached the quarterfinals of the WGC Match Play and tied for fourth in the PGA Championship, but he also has missed nine cuts in 2023.
Eric Cole
Always leave room for the potential that someone breaks down the door during the FedEx Cup playoffs, and Cole is an under-the-radar candidate to do just that. The rookie’s long-term strokes-gained chart has been a steady climb in the right direction during the past two years. You never know.
Sean Fairholm