AGA looks at what to expect for the 2022–23 winter heating season
There’s good news this winter, according to the American Gas Association’s 2022–23 winter heating season outlook.
With production at almost 98 billion cubic feet a day, “Suffice to say we are at or near record levels of flowing gas,” said Brendan O’Brien, manager, energy analysis.
While demand is still outpacing supply, that is expected to change by the end of winter 2023, when supply growth is expected to overtake demand, according to a short-term energy outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, winter temperatures are expected to be close to normal in terms of total heating-degree days, but colder than last year.
Natural gas continues to remain the most affordable winter home-heating fuel based on average expenditures, well below the cost of fuel oil, propane or electricity. Natural gas is also still used by most of the country to heat homes: 49% of households choose natural gas compared to 40% that use electric, 4% that use fuel oil and 4% that use propane. “Natural gas remains a bedrock for affordability in this country,” said O’Brien.
Still, with 27% of U.S. households facing energy insecurity, utilities continue to participate in multiple energy assistance programs focused on customers in need, including the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program or LIHEAP; state and local programs; budget billing, which allows customers to spread costs equally across 12 months, or other payment plans; weatherization assistance; and voluntary nonterminations.
All in all, AGA’s annual winter heating season outlook found that the weather and growing economy have spurred energy demand growth; natural gas production is setting new records as winter begins; gas pricing has dropped and the market indicates potential further easing; natural gas remains the most affordable fuel to heat homes; and gas utilities are ready to meet customers’ needs.
“Gas utilities are well-positioned to serve customers reliably this winter,” said O’Brien. “Some people might say that’s a basic point, but I think it’s a fundamental one, especially when we look at the many energy challenges that our allies are facing in Europe as they respond to the aggression from Russia and challenges related to their energy and natural gas supplies. The U.S. is well positioned, given its resource space and the extensive infrastructure and storage and delivery system that allows gas to be produced and moved to where it is used, for all sections of our economy.”