The 2020 United States presidential election promises to be among the most contentious in history. Rarely has the electorate been so deeply divided about politics and social issues. Yet beyond the basic polling numbers surrounding Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, there are a multitude of groups, factors, and complex demographic trends that will impact the outcome as Election Day approaches.
These include age, gender, religion, education, race, and party affiliation. There are also several key battleground states that could flip the election one way or another. Together, these factors will determine who leads the U.S. for the next four years.
Engineering Inc. has examined historical data and solicited election experts to provide insight into the crucial issues and factors that will likely determine the outcome. Although sentiment, opinions, and attitudes can always change before Nov. 3, these projections provide a compass for understanding the upcoming election. They also offer a window into key issues that will almost certainly impact other races—and how the country will ultimately move forward.
The following is a glance at some of the key groups, factors, and states:
The dynamics that propelled Trump to office in 2016 are changing. RealClearPolitics notes that Trump’s job approval ratings trail both George Bush and Barack Obama as they approached reelection. But there are also overarching trends that reflect how the U.S. is changing.
“Even before Trump, a split has been emerging among white voters—white voters without a four-year college degree have been trending Republican, while white voters with a four-year degree have been trending Democratic,†says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“Workingclass whites in the Rust Belt and Hispanics in the Sun Belt remain key groups for both candidates.â€
ZELJKA BUTUROVIC
SURVEY STATISTICIAN ZOGBY ANALYTICS
“Trump tapped into these trends in 2016, when he won several key swing states in part because they have higherthan-average shares of white voters without a college degree,†Kondik adds. “However, Trump’s problems with white college voters appear to be deepening, and he may not be making commensurate gains with white-non-college voters to make up what he is losing.â€
It is no secret that COVID-19 and the death of George Floyd have significantly altered the equation—though Trump garnered only 8 percent of black voters in 2016, according to Gallup. In early 2020, Trump’s odds of being reelected were high. After the impeachment trial in January, his approval rating reached a three-year high in the upper 40 percent range. However, since then, Biden has won the Democratic nomination, gained ground on Trump, and stretched his lead in national polls from about 5 percent to double digits in mid-June.
Although Trump may win back some support as the election approaches, Zeljka Buturovic, a survey statistician for Zogby Analytics, agrees that things are different now compared to four years ago.
“2016 was a year of the working-class white voter. This group comprises a large number of voters in the Rust Belt, and thus even small swings within this group can have tectonic consequences for the Electoral College,†says Buturovic. “By all appearances, including our own data, Vice President Biden’s standing among these voters is much better than Secretary Clinton’s was in 2016.â€
Because of the peculiarities of the Electoral College, the 2016 presidential election came down to three key states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which have leaned toward Democrats in the past. Although Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million, these states flipped the election for Trump. The 2020 election could display equally unconventional results, according to Buturovic.
Several key swing states could play a role in determining the outcome of the election. In addition to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, these include Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
“The 2016 presidential election has upended our understanding of swing states, suggesting a possibility of realignment,†Buturovic says. “Prior to 2016 it was widely assumed that there existed a ‘blue wall’—safe Democratic states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that Secretary Clinton could not lose. This time around, nobody assumes this. All these states are considered to be in play.â€
Likewise, previous Republican-leaning states are now up for grabs, including Arizona, Georgia, and Florida. Even Texas is a possibility. Research firm FiveThirtyEight showed that Trump is slightly favored to win Texas as of September (51.3 percent to Biden’s 47.7 percent). According to Buturovic, this means Trump could win reelection on a completely different electoral path—one that relies on the Sun Belt versus the Rust Belt. “However, at this moment it looks like he could be obliterated in both old and new swing states,†she adds. “Working-class whites in the Rust Belt and Hispanics in the Sun Belt remain key groups for both candidates.â€
Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan, independent newsletter that analyzes campaigns, notes that Biden currently needs about 25 percent of toss-up states to win, while Trump needs about 75 percent.
FiveThirtyEight founder and editor-inchief Nate Silver wrote, “So while a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November.â€
Overall, voters with college and advanced degrees tend to support Democrats, while evangelicals tend to vote Republican. According to a 2014 study by Religion News, 76 percent of white evangelicals identify or lean Republican. In 2016, Trump captured a whopping 80 percent of the white evangelical vote, according to exit polls conducted by The Washington Post.
Trump also has the support of Catholics and other Christian groups, according to Newsweek.com. These trends are likely to largely hold up, though Trump’s support among Christians has faltered recently.
Similarly, LGBTQ groups and minorities—especially African Americans—are more likely to vote Democrat. A 2016 Pew Research Center study found that 82 percent of LGBTQ people, who make up about 5 percent of the overall electorate, are registered as Democrats.
However, if you peel back income statistics and trends, a few interesting observations emerge. “Well-off voters in blue states tend to support Democrats while, traditionally, well-off voters in red states tended to vote Republican. We are not seeing much movement among those categories,†Buturovic says. “Instead, older voters, white voters, and Hispanics seem to be most persuadable in this cycle.â€
With 32 million eligible Hispanic voters, they are indeed a coveted prize. In August, Biden led 63 percent to 35 percent among this group, according to the Pew Research Center.
Buturovic adds that Trump so far has not garnered enough support among older voters to win the election, and Biden may be more appealing to older voters.
It is an important point because senior citizens are the most reliable of all voters, and in recent years they have leaned Republican compared to younger cohorts, according to Kondik.
“But some polling has indicated Biden may be leading narrowly with senior citizens, which could have big ramifications in several key states,†he says. Kondik also believes this is a trend to watch because Trump needs to win among seniors to return to the White House.
According to August data from Pew, among male registered voters, Biden held a narrow 50 percent lead (over Trump’s 48%), and women supported Biden by a 56 percent to 42 percent margin.
Meanwhile, 45 percent of independents favor Biden versus 42 percent for Trump, according to Zogby research. The same poll found that moderates prefer Biden to Trump 51 percent to 42 percent. Among younger voters, ages 18 to 24, the preference for Biden is 48 percent to 40 percent. When the age range is extended from 18 to 29, the figure is 48 percent, and it hits 42 percent when all age groups are factored into the equation. Among voters age 30 plus, the preference reverses to Trump by a 54 percent to 41 percent margin. Finally, among suburban voters, Trump holds a slight 46 percent to 44 percent advantage, though suburban women prefer Biden 45 percent to 43 percent.
Of course, who shows up on Election Day is just as important as underlying preferences and trends. According to Kondik, this will likely hold a key to which candidate prevails.
“Generally speaking, older, whiter, and more educated are demographic traits that generally suggest higher turnout levels,†he says. “Latino and Asian-American voters tend not to turn out at rates as high as white voters. Black voters are somewhere in between, although black turnout was at higher levels, even as high as whites, when Obama was on the ticket.â€
One factor that impacts nearly all demographic groups is the current round of news events, which may or may not fade away by the November election. COVID-19, Black Lives Matter protests, and the economy are all factors. There is some indication they have already played a significant role in shifting perceptions and attitudes about society and the candidates.
“Public opinion is very much in flux,†Buturovic says. “Never in recent history has such a wide range of possible outcomes been within the realm of possibility.â€
While the political consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are not clear over the long term, what is apparent is that the issue has become highly politicized. A May YouGov poll found that 67 percent of Democrats believe that wearing a mask in public is important while 54 percent of Republicans concur. Similarly, 83 percent of Republican respondents thought Trump’s response to novel coronavirus was either excellent or good, while only 18 percent of Democrats believe he has done a good job.
But again, demographics tell a more detailed and complicated story.
“In our data, we did see that, at the height of the crisis, older voters, which are typically supportive of President Trump, were less supportive of his handling of COVID-19, pointing to a possible weakness that Vice President Biden could exploit,†Buturovic says.
Ironically, younger voters were more aligned with the president about reopening the economy. The X-factor? “A second wave of the virus, new lockdowns, a vaccine, or a failure to return to pre-COVID employment numbers could all completely change the public’s perception,†Buturovic says.
Because the pandemic overlaps with the economy—the U.S. is now officially in a recession and could be headed for a depression—there are implications and ramifications for both candidates, though an incumbent president has historically been punished for a recession in election years.
“Ultimately, COVID-19 probably hurts the president because it basically has hurt the economy and made Americans’ lives worse,†Kondik says. Speeches, tweets, and statements will not change the basic situation. “2020 is shaping up as a bad year in American history—that naturally hurts the incumbent party, though it also does not make the November results a foregone conclusion,†he adds.
Still another factor is the death of George Floyd and the protests it spawned.
“The protests have generated some of the largest swings in public opinion that we have ever seen. At the moment, Black Lives Matter is seen positively by a majority of American adults—a change of more than 20 points from just a few years ago,†Buturovic says.
As the presidential election approaches, how Trump responds to this change in values is critical, according to Kondik.
“Trump and the Republicans, who generally are on the side of police in criminal justice matters, have felt the need to at least try to offer some reform measures on policing,†he says. “They recognize that the public is more sympathetic to reformers’ concerns now than the public was four or five years ago.â€
“Ultimately, COVID-19 probably hurts the president because it basically has hurt the economy and made Americans’ lives worse.â€
KYLE KONDIK
MANAGING EDITOR
SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL
UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS
Cook Political Report noted that Trump’s chances for returning to the White House hinge heavily on his job approval ratings.
“The closer he sits to 46–48 percent job approval rating in October, the better chance he has to squeak out another narrow Electoral College win. But, when he gets much below 45 percent, his path to Electoral College victory gets more and more narrow,†wrote Amy Walter, national editor at Cook Political Report.
Of course, both candidates are now well-known entities. However, Trump no longer has the potential attraction of running as a Washington outsider. Biden also does not have the negativity rating that Clinton suffered from in 2016.
An NPR story noted: “Biden’s ceiling is higher than Trump’s.â€
According to Kondik, in the end, it is a tough race to call and there are still plenty of laps left.
“We have to remember that the news cycle moves fast. That which seems vitally important today may be forgotten by tomorrow. At the same time, perceptions of Trump have been pretty steady, and Biden’s national lead has not been huge, but it has been fairly stable.â€
Samuel Greengard is a technology writer based in West Linn, Ore.