While it seems pretty unlikely that another first-time NASCAR Cup Series winner will emerge on Sunday afternoon at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the first two races of the 2021 season have proven that anything’s possible. After all, not many people expected Christopher Bell to prevail last weekend on the Daytona International Speedway road course in just his second start with Joe Gibbs Racing at the Cup level. It’s likely that even fewer people expected unheralded veteran Michael McDowell to prevail the previous weekend in the Daytona 500—the sport’s biggest race. After all, McDowell’s record coming into Daytona—zero wins in 357 Cup starts—didn’t exactly instill confidence that he would be the driver celebrating in Victory Lane at night’s end. Yet that’s exactly what happened after perennial frontrunners and former series champions Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski crashed while running 1-2 on the final lap, opening the door for McDowell to immediately go from third to first and capture a win that will go down as one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history. Drivers who now seem to be not all that far away from their first career Cup win, and who could foreseeably break through at Homestead, include two-time NASCAR Xfinity Series champion Tyler Reddick, Matt DiBenedetto, Bubba Wallace and Stewart-Haas Racing rookie Chase Briscoe. Reddick, in particular, has reason for optimism at Homestead since he clinched both of his Xfinity Series championships here and also scored the race victory on both occasions. Reddick finished fourth at Homestead last year in his first Cup start at the track.